This is my second speculation on SilverCrest—and my second time making money on it. The first time was as a high-grade exploration story. That worked out well. This second time on the same company was as a pre-production sweet spot (PPSS) play. That did not work out so well, as investors got so excited about this high-grade silver mine in the making that the company got fairly valued before construction even started. However, I was so convinced of the value of the asset (and the quality of the people running the mine) that I held on and averaged down when there was a setback. That set me up for a nice gain—almost a double— when the mine did become a cash cow.

I took profits when Mexico took a strongly anti-mining turn. I've now cashed out entirely because SilverCrest is being taken over by a larger company (Coeur Mining, CDE) that I'm not interested in owning. Why not wait longer to see if there's a competing bid? Well, I'm not the only one worried about "Mexico Risk." Any large company seriously thinking about it has probably already done their due diligence and knows what they're willing to pay. The lack of an immediate competing bid when CDE's bid was not at a high premium suggests little appetite. The break-off fee adds a hurdle as well. It could still happen. If so, I won't benefit from having already sold. But silver is up, and that could go into reverse if the economy weakens and silver's industrial side becomes dominant. That's not a prediction, just a risk I was wary of. So I booked my win and have moved on.

(Note that my cost basis is a weighted average, as is my exit price; they won't match historical prices on the entry and exit dates if you look them up.)