My stock picks did better in 2023 than in 2022, both of which were tough years for the resource sector.
This is odd in a way, as bearish as sentiment for mining stocks was—and remains. But not really, given that uranium was my highest-conviction bet for 2023. That worked out quite well for my clients and me.
Even so, there’s no sugar-coating the fact that, as a group, The Independent Speculator portfolio stocks ended up slightly down for the year: -2.48%.
This was better than the TSX-Venture exchange, which fell 3.05%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which was down 12.55%, but not as good as the GDXJ, which ended the year up 6.34%.
The S&P 500 trounced me, of course. No Nvidia for me in 2023. But that’s a very different beast. I include it only for reference to the broader world.
Then again, if we average these yearly gains and losses, The Independent Speculator has delivered +18.42% since inception, while the S&P 500 only yielded +12% over the same period. The TSX-V was -2%, the GDXJ +4%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index +3%.
But as I wrote in last year’s report card, I don’t think annual snapshots are the right way to look at a track record.
Nobody buys on January 2 and sells on December 31 every year.
What matters is if we make money when a speculation is realized and done.
This is why The Independent Speculator track record shows only completed trades—all of them, from beginning to end, fees included, no cherry-picking or exceptions.
I currently have an average gain of 54.8% on all completed trades.
I think these are the numbers that matter the most.
But… every year, people ask me how I did in the preceding year. Some even seem to think I’m hiding something when I say that completed trades are a more comprehensive and informative indicator of past performance.
Hence this report card, for any who want to know.
Looking forward, I think I’ll do much better in 2024 than I did in 2023, which really was very bearish for most of the resource sector.
Of course, I’d be expected to say that, right?
So check in next year to see how I do!
Or join now to benefit alongside me if I’m right and we have another year like 2020… or better.
Sincerely,
